Putin Out as President of Russia by…?

Russia’s presidential leadership question concerns whether Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia through a set of specified deadlines. The supplied markets focus on a possible change in presidential status by August 31, September 30, or December 31, 2026, and by June 30, 2027. The market framing centers on a clearly defined status change rather than a forecast of a particular successor. In the supplied resolution language, a market is answered Yes if Putin ceases to be President for any period between market creation and its deadline. The excerpts also state that an announcement of his resignation or removal before the applicable end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change takes effect. Exact market rules and the applicable deadline remain the authoritative basis for resolution. For a prediction-market reader, the central distinction is between the underlying topic—presidential continuity or change in Russia—and the different time horizons used to test it. Earlier deadlines isolate near-term outcomes, while later deadlines cover a longer window. Comparing these Markets can show how the same leadership question is structured across time, without treating one contract’s deadline or resolution condition as evidence that the event will occur. The available Markets therefore provide a time-bounded way to follow a potential presidential leadership change, with attention to formal announcements and the status determination specified by each market.