Does 40¢ mean a 40% chance?

It is a common shorthand for implied probability under that Contract’s rules, assuming a functioning market. It is not a guarantee.

Why do PMI odds sometimes disagree with what I see on the platform?

PMI shows delayed snapshots. Platforms update continuously. Refresh the platform for the trading price.

Do Event Updates change the odds?

Updates are reviewed developments about the Event. Traders may reprice after news; PMI does not set prices.

Should Yes prices on a race add to 100%?

Not exactly—fees, longshots, and incomplete fields matter. Use the sum as a sanity check, not a hard law.

Is this financial advice?

No. PMI is for research and education. Trading involves risk and is governed by each platform.

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How to read prediction market odds

Prediction markets price unsettled questions. A price is not a poll and not a guarantee—it is what traders are willing to pay for a claim that pays out if an outcome happens (under that market’s rules).

Cents as probabilities (roughly)

On many platforms, a Yes share near 63¢ is often read as “about a 63% chance” under that Contract’s rules—if markets are liquid and traders are informed. Treat that as a rough implied probability, not a scientific forecast.

On PMI you will see delayed snapshots of those prices. They help you research an Event; they are not a live order book.

Yes, No, and mutually exclusive boards

On a binary Contract, Yes + No should be near $1 before fees (gaps appear with spreads and stale books).
On a Race Aggregate, Selections compete; their Yes prices are not independent “free probabilities” that must sum to 100% after fees and longshot overlays—but extreme sums are a clue to check rules and liquidity.
On a Ladder Aggregate, rungs are related (earlier deadlines often imply later ones). Read the whole ladder, not one rung in isolation.

Volume, liquidity, and last trade

High volume usually means more eyes and tighter prices. Thin markets can sit at misleading levels for a long time. Prefer Markets with clear rules, a known resolution source, and enough activity that a single trade does not dominate the print you see on PMI.

Rules beat headlines

Two Contracts can share a headline and still resolve differently (cutoff time, what counts as “invade,” who must certify the winner). On PMI, open the Market for structured terms and platform rules. Event Updates explain world developments; they do not change a Contract’s rulebook.

What PMI prices are (and are not)

Are: research snapshots tied to a listed Market / Selection.
Are not: advice, a promise of “live” odds, or a PMI-run exchange.

Always confirm the current price and rules on the platform before trading. Start from the Events catalog, then open an Event such as US Fed rate cuts 2026 to see how odds sit next to rules and Updates.

FAQ

Does 40¢ mean a 40% chance?: It is a common shorthand for implied probability under that Contract’s rules, assuming a functioning market. It is not a guarantee.
Why do PMI odds sometimes disagree with what I see on the platform?: PMI shows delayed snapshots. Platforms update continuously. Refresh the platform for the trading price.
Do Event Updates change the odds?: Updates are reviewed developments about the Event. Traders may reprice after news; PMI does not set prices.
Should Yes prices on a race add to 100%?: Not exactly—fees, longshots, and incomplete fields matter. Use the sum as a sanity check, not a hard law.
Is this financial advice?: No. PMI is for research and education. Trading involves risk and is governed by each platform.

More guides on the Learning hub.