Binary · Resolved · Polymarket

Fed rate hike in 2026?

The Federal Reserve’s 2026 interest-rate decision concerns whether the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes during the year. The supplied market focuses specifically on whether that upper bound is increased before the Fed’s December 2026 meeting.

Parent Event Fed Rate Hike in 2026?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

99.9¢

Yes

24h move

+4.4 pp

Closes

Dec 09, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Stale

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes

Stale snapshot

Bid

99.9¢

Ask

Not available

Mid

Not available

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

99.9¢

Bid

Spread
Not available
24h move
+4.4 pp
Closes
Dec 09, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Sep 16, 2026, 20:00 UTC
Liquidity
$185K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
92271.13
Ask size
Not available
Vol 24h
344K shares
Vol total
9.9M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$185K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
0.1¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Market-linked

    Second-quarter GDP growth holds at 1.5%, while quarterly PCE inflation is revised higher

    BEA’s second estimate kept Q2 2026 real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, while revising the PCE price index up to 5.3% and core PCE to 3.6%. The data show continued economic growth alongside stronger-than-previously-estimated inflation.

    Open source

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Market-linked

    July PCE inflation remains elevated, with headline at 3.7% and core at 3.3% year over year

    BEA reported that the July PCE price index increased 3.7% from a year earlier, while core PCE inflation rose 3.3%. Both measures increased 0.2% month over month and remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation objective.

    Open source

  • CNBC · Oct 14, 2026, 12:31 UTC · Event-wide

    Hot September CPI (3.7% headline, core 0.3% m/m) sends October Fed hike odds to about 54% ahead of the Oct. 27–28 meeting

    Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Oct. 14. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% on the year, above the 0.2% and 2.5% economists expected. Gasoline jumped 9.1% and made up about half of the monthly gain, but shelter, used vehicles and apparel also rose. After the release, CME FedWatch put the odds of a hike at the Oct. 27–28 FOMC meeting at about 54%. It also priced better than 96% odds of a hike by year-end and a near 50-50 chance of a half-point of tightening by December. This is the last CPI report before the meeting.

    Open source

  • Invezz · Oct 03, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Event-wide

    Markets slash October Fed hike odds from ~70% to ~17% after Williams, soft PCE, and 29k payrolls

    CME FedWatch odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting fell from about 70% on September 28 to roughly 20% after Friday’s jobs report, briefly touching 13.8%. New York Fed President John Williams said after the September hike there was “no need for urgency” and time to gather more information; Vice Chair Philip Jefferson later said the Fed’s judgment “may take more time.” Softer August core PCE (3.0% year over year vs. 3.3% expected) and a 29,000 September payroll gain—far below ~90,000 expected, with July–August revised down a combined 60,000—drove the repricing. Goldman Sachs moved its next-hike forecast from October to December.

    Open source

  • Federal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026, 18:00 UTC · Event-wide

    September SEP: median funds rate 4.1% end-2026; 16 of 18 participants see at least one more hike this year

    Alongside the FOMC’s unanimous Sept. 16 quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4%, the Summary of Economic Projections shows a median appropriate federal funds rate of 4.1% at end-2026 (up from 3.8% in June). In the dot plot, 12 participants see a 4.125% midpoint and 4 see 4.375% for end-2026, with only 2 at 3.875% — implying 16 of 18 expect at least one additional hike after the September move. Median PCE inflation for 2026 was marked up to 3.7%.

    Open source

  • Federal Reserve Board · Aug 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide

    FOMC minutes say several officials could support rate hikes if inflation remains elevated

    Minutes from the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting said several participants viewed an increase in the target range as potentially appropriate if inflation remained above target. The minutes also reported market pricing for a 25-basis-point hike by the September meeting, while the Desk survey’s median respondent expected no rate change in 2026 or 2027.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

What changed

Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.

current v2 · 2 known

  1. v2non-core fieldsLifecycleobs Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC

    Before

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    After

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
    Status
    Active → Resolved
    Closes
    Dec 09, 2026, 00:00 → Dec 09, 2026, 00:00 · UTC
    Title
    Fed rate hike in 2026? → Fed rate hike in 2026?

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Version ingestion
Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest observation
Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Nov 02, 2026, 13:36 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Sep 16, 2026, 20:00 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Sep 16, 2026, 19:59 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.