Race · Published · Polymarket
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
This Event covers the selection of the Republican nominee for the 2028 US presidential election. Its reviewed aggregate Market tracks 42 listed selections, including Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Ted Cruz, Marjorie Taylor Greene, J.D. Vance, Greg Abbott, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, and Thomas Massie.
Parent Event US Republican Presidential Nomination 2028. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Reference
51.3¢
J.D. Vance
24h move
0.0 pp
Closes
Nov 07, 2028, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Fresh
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket
| Rank | Candidate | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | J.D. Vance | Yes 51.3¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #2 | Marco Rubio | Yes 16.3¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | -0.1 pp | Fresh | |
| #3 | Tucker Carlson | Yes 3.5¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #4 | Ron DeSantis | Yes 2.4¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #5 | Donald Trump | Yes 1.9¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #6 | Ted Cruz | Yes 1.8¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | — | Stale | |
| #7 | Donald Trump Jr. | Yes 1.6¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | — | Fresh | |
| #8 | Ivanka Trump | Yes 0.9¢ | Midpoint | 0.2¢ | — | Stale |
Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
The Daily Beast · Aug 18, 2026, 10:26 UTC · Market-linked
Pete Hegseth aides reportedly discuss a 2028 presidential campaign
The Daily Beast reports that officials familiar with Pete Hegseth’s thinking believe his aides are preparing for a possible 2028 presidential bid. Hegseth’s recent appearances supporting Republican candidates in Iowa and South Carolina are cited as evidence of potential early-primary positioning, though neither Hegseth nor the Defense Department confirmed a campaign plan.
Open sourceAxios · Aug 13, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Marco Rubio reiterates he will not run in 2028 and would endorse J.D. Vance
Axios reports that Marco Rubio has said he does not plan to run for president in 2028 and would endorse J.D. Vance if Vance enters the race. The article also reports that President Trump wants Vance to consider Rubio as a running mate. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/08/13/marco-rubio-memes-birthday-gift))
Open sourceFox News · Jul 23, 2026, 18:34 UTC · Market-linked
New Hampshire poll shows Rubio sharply narrowing Vance’s early 2028 lead
A University of New Hampshire poll of likely Republican primary voters found J.D. Vance leading Marco Rubio 36% to 26%, compared with a 53% to 7% Vance advantage in February. Rand Paul and Nikki Haley registered 8% each, while Ron DeSantis received 6%.
Open sourceAxios · Jul 08, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Major GOP donor Ken Griffin says he would support Marco Rubio over J.D. Vance in a hypothetical 2028 primary
Republican megadonor Ken Griffin said he would be predisposed to support Marco Rubio rather than J.D. Vance in a hypothetical 2028 GOP primary matchup. The comments add a notable establishment-donor signal favoring Rubio, but Griffin did not announce a campaign or specify financial support. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/07/08/ken-griffin-gop-rubio-vance-2028))
Open sourceAxios · Jun 26, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Scoop: JD Vance raises $4.2 million in Silicon Valley
Vice President J.D. Vance headlined an RNC fundraiser in Palo Alto that raised $4.2 million, with about two dozen supporters reportedly paying $250,000 each. Axios says his role as RNC finance chair is strengthening relationships with major Republican donors ahead of an expected 2028 presidential run. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/26/scoop-jc-vance-raises-42-million-in-silicon-valley))
Open sourceAxios · Jun 13, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Cruz breaks with Trump on key endorsements as 2028 looms
Ted Cruz endorsed candidates opposing Donald Trump’s preferred choices in the 2026 Georgia and South Carolina Republican gubernatorial runoffs, while taking other steps associated with preparing a possible 2028 presidential campaign. Axios frames the moves as an effort to establish independence from Trump’s endorsement network. ([axios.com](https://www.axios.com/2026/06/13/ted-cruz-trump-endorsements-2028))
Open sourceCBS News / KFF Health News · May 15, 2026, 09:00 UTC · Market-linked
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. says he will not run for president in 2028
Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said on May 7 that he will not run for president in 2028. The statement is a direct denial from one of the listed selections in the Republican presidential nominee market.
Open sourceThe State · Apr 13, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Market-linked
Nikki Haley says she will not seek the 2028 Republican presidential nomination
Nikki Haley told CNN on April 12, 2026, that she would not participate in the 2028 Republican presidential primary, removing her from consideration as a listed candidate.
Open sourceCPAC · Mar 30, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Official CPAC 2026 straw poll gives J.D. Vance a large lead in the 2028 Republican field
CPAC reported that J.D. Vance received 53% support among attendees asked about the 2028 Republican presidential primary, followed by Marco Rubio at 35%. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each received 2%, while several others received 1%.
Open sourceThe Daily Beast · Aug 06, 2026, 13:48 UTC · Event-wide
Trump privately tells donors, “We need to elect JD,” signaling preference for J.D. Vance in 2028
The Daily Beast reported that President Donald Trump told donors during a private Oval Office meeting, reportedly held in late July 2026, that “we need to elect JD,” referring to J.D. Vance. The report, based on two Washington Post sources, says Trump has not publicly endorsed Vance and may still change his mind, with Marco Rubio remaining a potential alternative.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Exclusive · Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
- Resolution condition
- The named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president.
- Resolution source
- A consensus of official Republican Party sources.
- Closing time Missing
- Unknown
- Time zone Missing
- Not stated (display times in UTC)
- Cancellation / early-close logic
- Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Full Exchange Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Sep 17, 2026, 00:13 UTC | Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.
Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.