Binary · Active · Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This topic concerns whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran before the end of 2026. The supplied market uses a defined territorial baseline and resolves according to whether that specified offensive occurs by December 31, 2026.

Parent Event Will the U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

16.5¢

Yes

24h move

-1.0 pp

Closes

Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes (derived)

Fresh snapshot

Bid

16.0¢

Ask

17.0¢

Mid

16.5¢

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

16.5¢

Midpoint

Spread
1.0¢
24h move
-1.0 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Liquidity
$359K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
116812.7
Ask size
4088.35
Vol 24h
485K shares
Vol total
77M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$359K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
1.0¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • CNBC · Oct 08, 2026, 16:25 UTC · Event-wide

    Trump says the US will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterms, while the blockade and the military buildup continue

    President Trump wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 8: “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections,” citing “productive discussions” with Tehran. The day before, he had told reporters his administration was weighing renewed strikes before the election, and Brent crude rose more than 4% to above $104. Trump said the naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place and that Iran will not be allowed a nuclear weapon. Reuters reported in September that top aides wanted the war contained through the midterms while leaving heavier strikes open for after the vote. The US is still sending about 9,000 sailors and Marines and a third aircraft carrier, which could put three carriers in the region by late October.

    Open source

  • Al Jazeera · Oct 02, 2026, 08:00 UTC · Event-wide

    US deploys third carrier and 2,000+ Marines toward Iran as force options expand into November

    A US official told Al Jazeera that the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group left San Diego bound for waters around Iran, followed by the Makin Island Marine Expeditionary Force with more than 2,000 Marines. By end-November, three carriers and two amphibious landing groups are expected around Iran, layered on roughly 50,000 US troops already in the region. Al-Monitor separately confirmed the Makin Island ARG with the 13th MEU and Roosevelt cycling into the Arabian Sea while the George Washington and George H.W. Bush remain on station enforcing the Iranian-port blockade.

    Open source

  • Stars and Stripes · Aug 31, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Event-wide

    Army extends 82nd Airborne Middle East deployment into 2027 amid Iran war

    Stars and Stripes reported August 31 that elements of the 82nd Airborne Division deployed to U.S. Central Command in March will remain forward for up to twelve months into 2027, citing “operational requirements” in a division commander letter confirmed by XVIII Airborne Corps. About 2,000 soldiers from the division surged to the region after the Iran war began; the conflict had passed six months with roughly 50,000 U.S. troops in the CENTCOM area and Trump keeping more intense military options on the table. No U.S. ground invasion of Iranian territory was reported.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

What changed

Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.

current v2 · 2 known

  1. v2decision-relevant (rules/dates/outcomes)Datesobs Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

    Review both clauses. PMI does not classify legal materiality from string inequality.

    Before

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

    After

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
    Status
    Active → Active
    Closes
    Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 → Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 · UTC
    Title
    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? → Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Version ingestion
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest observation
Nov 02, 2026, 12:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Nov 02, 2026, 13:36 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Nov 02, 2026, 13:29 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.