Binary · Active · Polymarket

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This topic concerns whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran before the end of 2026. The supplied market uses a defined territorial baseline and resolves according to whether that specified offensive occurs by December 31, 2026.

Parent Event Will the U.S. Invade Iran Before 2027?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

16.5¢

Yes

24h move

0.0 pp

Closes

Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes (derived)

Fresh snapshot

Bid

16.0¢

Ask

17.0¢

Mid

16.5¢

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

16.5¢

Midpoint

Spread
1.0¢
24h move
0.0 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Liquidity
$777K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
173489.34
Ask size
133846.24
Vol 24h
169K shares
Vol total
66M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$777K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
1.0¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

No research updates yet
Updates linked to this Market will appear here when available.

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

What changed

Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.

current v2 · 2 known

  1. v2decision-relevant (rules/dates/outcomes)Datesobs Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

    Review both clauses. PMI does not classify legal materiality from string inequality.

    Before

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

    After

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
    Status
    Active → Active
    Closes
    Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 → Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 · UTC
    Title
    Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? → Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Version ingestion
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest observation
Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Sep 17, 2026, 00:23 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.