RaceActiveFresh
Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket · 18 Selections
Leading Flávio Bolsonaro 54.0¢Polymarket
Closes Oct 04, 2026, 00:00 UTC18 listings
Politics · 1 Market
Brazil Presidential Election 2026
Markets on Brazil Presidential Election 2026 across listed aggregate markets. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.
Markets
1
Platforms
1
Closes
Oct 04, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Scheduled
Last updated
Sep 16, 2026, 22:30 UTC
01 / Markets
Available Markets
02 / Updates
Latest Updates
CNN Brasil · Aug 26, 2026, 15:31 UTC
Indexa/Broadcast poll puts Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in first round and runoff
A national Indexa/Broadcast poll conducted August 20–23 among 2,000 voters gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34% in the first round. In a runoff matchup, Lula leads Flávio 46%–41%. The poll has a 2.2-point margin of error and is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-06366/2026.
This is a decision-relevant national poll for the Brazil Presidential Election market: it shows Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro in both the first-round and runoff scenarios, providing additional evidence against treating Flávio’s recent polling gains as a clear national advantage.
Open sourceEarlier · 7 notes
03 / Topic
Topic Brief
The 2026 Brazilian presidential election is on 4 October, with a runoff if nobody wins a majority. This market is who becomes president, including a second round.
Lula is the incumbent. Flávio Bolsonaro is the main opposition name after Jair Bolsonaro was barred. Eligibility still matters: a prosecutor recommendation is not the TSE’s final word on who can run.
Watch first-round polls, runoff matchups, and court decisions on candidacy. A poll lead is not the same thing as winning the presidency.