Brazil Presidential Election 2026

Folha de S.Paulo · Oct 08, 2026, 21:40 UTC

First runoff Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52%–48% in valid votes ahead of the Oct. 25 second round

Datafolha’s first poll since the Oct. 4 first round puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead of President Lula (PT) by 52% to 48% in valid votes, the measure the TSE uses to count the result. In total votes it is 49% to 45%, with 5% blank or null and 1% undecided. The survey of 2,520 voters was fielded Oct. 6–7 for Folha and TV Globo (TSE registration BR-02949/2026), with a margin of error of two points. Among voters who backed eliminated candidates such as Cury, Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos, 46% say they now move to Flávio and 32% to Lula. Flávio leads in every region except the Northeast.

Flávio finished first on Oct. 4 with 47.03% to Lula’s 45.16%, and this first runoff Datafolha shows that edge holding rather than snapping back to the incumbent. Folha notes the race is at the far edge of a technical tie but that the numbers point to a Flávio advantage, and that no runner-up in the first round has won a runoff since redemocratization. Lula’s path rests on turning out low-propensity voters after a record 21% abstention.