Race · Published · Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

Polymarket odds for who wins Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, including a possible runoff.

Parent Event Brazil Presidential Election 2026. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

99.9¢

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

24h move

+78.4 pp

Closed

Oct 05, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Stale

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

Brazil Presidential Election

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for Brazil Presidential Election by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Yes
99.9¢
Bid—+78.4 ppStale
#2
Renan Santos
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—-0.1 ppStale
#3
Romeu Zema
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#4
Camilo Santana
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#5
Flávio Bolsonaro
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—-83.7 ppStale
#6
Michelle Bolsonaro
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#7
Jair Bolsonaro
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—0.0 ppStale
#8
Eduardo Leite
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • CNN Brasil · Aug 26, 2026, 15:31 UTC · Market-linked

    Indexa/Broadcast poll puts Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in first round and runoff

    A national Indexa/Broadcast poll conducted August 20–23 among 2,000 voters gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34% in the first round. In a runoff matchup, Lula leads Flávio 46%–41%. The poll has a 2.2-point margin of error and is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-06366/2026.

    Open source

  • Gazeta do Povo · Aug 26, 2026, 11:01 UTC · Market-linked

    Gerp poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula in the first round and ahead in a runoff

    A Gerp poll of 2,400 voters conducted August 21–25 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37% in the stimulated first-round scenario, within the poll’s ±2 percentage-point margin of error. In a simulated runoff, Flávio leads Lula 47%–42%; Lula has a 49% rejection rate versus 40% for Flávio. The poll is registered with the TSE as BR-03547/2026.

    Open source

  • Metrópoles · Aug 24, 2026, 22:37 UTC · Market-linked

    Electoral Prosecutor recommends approval of Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy

    Brazil’s Electoral Prosecutor’s Office recommended that the TSE approve Flávio Bolsonaro’s registration for the 2026 presidential election, finding that he submitted the required documents and has no identified criminal or improbity-based ineligibility. The recommendation is nonbinding, and the TSE must issue the final ruling.

    Open source

  • Agência Brasil · Aug 24, 2026, 16:53 UTC · Market-linked

    TRE-SP maintains Pablo Marçal’s ineligibility through 2032

    The president of TRE-SP rejected Pablo Marçal’s special electoral appeal, maintaining his ineligibility through 2032 and a R$420,000 fine over misuse of media in the 2024 São Paulo mayoral campaign. An appeal to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court remains possible.

    Open source

  • Nexus · Aug 24, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the first round; Lula leads 46%-45% in a runoff

    The 11th BTG/Nexus poll, conducted August 21–23 among 2,006 voters, puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the main first-round scenario. Ronaldo Caiado has 5%, while Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each have 3%. In a Lula–Flávio runoff, Lula leads 46% to 45%. The poll reports that 80% of decided first-round voters say their choice is already fixed.

    Open source

  • Folha de S.Paulo / Datafolha · Aug 21, 2026, 21:40 UTC · Market-linked

    Datafolha poll puts Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round; Lula leads 47%-43% in a runoff

    The first Datafolha survey after official campaigning and candidate registration gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33% in the first round. Ronaldo Caiado polls at 5%, Renan Santos at 4%, and Romeu Zema at 3%. In a runoff matchup, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47%-43%.

    Open source

  • Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Aug 20, 2026, 16:04 UTC · Market-linked

    TSE temporarily bars Pablo Marçal from campaign activity, public funds and presidential debates

    The TSE unanimously granted an interim injunction preventing Pablo Marçal from accessing public campaign resources, including the FEFC and party fund, airing free radio and television advertising, conducting campaign activities, or participating in debates until the merits of his presidential candidacy registration are decided. The decision cites possible failure to satisfy the party-affiliation requirement and Marçal’s existing ineligibility through 2032. ([tse.jus.br](https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Agosto/tse-concede-liminar-proibindo-pablo-marcal-de-usar-recursos-oficiais-para-campanha?utm_source=openai))

    Open source

  • Supremo Tribunal Federal · Jul 17, 2026, 03:00 UTC · Market-linked

    STF bars Jair Bolsonaro from political-electoral visits and manifestos through the 2026 election; suspends Flávio’s visits for 90 days

    A July 17, 2026 STF decision prohibited Jair Bolsonaro from receiving visits for political-electoral purposes and from disseminating political-electoral manifestos, including through third parties, until the end of Brazil’s 2026 general election. The ruling also suspended Flávio Bolsonaro’s visitation rights for 90 days and referred the matter to electoral authorities. ([portal.stf.jus.br](https://portal.stf.jus.br/processos/detalhe.asp?incidente=7447709&utm_source=openai))

    Open source

  • Folha de S.Paulo · Oct 08, 2026, 21:40 UTC · Event-wide

    First runoff Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 52%–48% in valid votes ahead of the Oct. 25 second round

    Datafolha’s first poll since the Oct. 4 first round puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) ahead of President Lula (PT) by 52% to 48% in valid votes, the measure the TSE uses to count the result. In total votes it is 49% to 45%, with 5% blank or null and 1% undecided. The survey of 2,520 voters was fielded Oct. 6–7 for Folha and TV Globo (TSE registration BR-02949/2026), with a margin of error of two points. Among voters who backed eliminated candidates such as Cury, Caiado, Zema and Renan Santos, 46% say they now move to Flávio and 32% to Lula. Flávio leads in every region except the Northeast.

    Open source

  • O Globo · Oct 05, 2026, 06:09 UTC · Event-wide

    Flávio Bolsonaro tops Lula 47.03%–45.16% in Brazil’s first round, forcing an Oct. 25 runoff

    With 100% of polling stations counted, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) finished first in Brazil’s October 4 presidential first round with 47.03% of valid votes (56.1 million), ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) at 45.16% (53.9 million). With neither candidate above 50%, the two advance to a runoff. Augusto Cury (Avante) placed third with 2.89%, followed by Renan Santos (Missão) at 2.24%, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 2.18% and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 0.27%. Abstention topped 21%, slightly above 2022.

    Open source

  • G1 · Oct 01, 2026, 22:05 UTC · Event-wide

    Datafolha poll: Lula 42%–38% over Flávio Bolsonaro days before first round; runoff still a technical tie at 48%–45%

    A Datafolha poll commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and Globo, fielded September 29–October 1 among 2,506 respondents (±2 pp), puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 42% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% in the first round (45%–40% in valid votes), with Augusto Cury 4%, Ronaldo Caiado 3%, and Renan Santos 3%. In a simulated runoff, Lula leads 48%–45% — still a technical tie within the margin, little changed from last week’s 47%–45%.

    Open source

  • Reuters · Sep 24, 2026, 21:58 UTC · Event-wide

    Datafolha poll: Lula 40%–36% over Flávio Bolsonaro in first round; runoff still a technical tie at 47%–45%

    A Datafolha poll commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo and Globo, fielded September 22–23 among 2,002 respondents (±2 pp), puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 36% in the first round, with Augusto Cury 5%, Ronaldo Caiado 4%, and Renan Santos 3%. In a simulated runoff, Lula leads 47%–45% — a technical tie within the margin, little changed from last week’s 46%–44%.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. Brazil Presidential Election

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:57 UTC

Full Exchange Rules 
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketOct 26, 2026, 02:59 UTCOct 26, 2026, 03:00 UTC1Open
Observed
Oct 26, 2026, 03:00 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

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