Race · Published · Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election

Markets on Brazil Presidential Election 2026 across listed aggregate markets. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.

Parent Event Brazil Presidential Election 2026. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

54.4¢

Flávio Bolsonaro

24h move

+1.3 pp

Closes

Oct 04, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

Brazil Presidential Election

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for Brazil Presidential Election by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
Flávio Bolsonaro
Yes
54.4¢
Midpoint0.1¢+1.3 ppFresh
#2
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Yes
44.5¢
Midpoint1.0¢-2.0 ppFresh
#3
Renan Santos
Yes
1.4¢
Midpoint0.1¢-0.3 ppFresh
#4
Romeu Zema
Yes
0.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢0.0 ppFresh
#5
Ronaldo Caiado
Yes
0.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢0.0 ppFresh
#6
Camilo Santana
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#7
Michelle Bolsonaro
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#8
Jair Bolsonaro
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • CNN Brasil · Aug 26, 2026, 15:31 UTC · Market-linked

    Indexa/Broadcast poll puts Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in first round and runoff

    A national Indexa/Broadcast poll conducted August 20–23 among 2,000 voters gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 34% in the first round. In a runoff matchup, Lula leads Flávio 46%–41%. The poll has a 2.2-point margin of error and is registered with the TSE under protocol BR-06366/2026.

    Open source

  • Gazeta do Povo · Aug 26, 2026, 11:01 UTC · Market-linked

    Gerp poll puts Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly ahead of Lula in the first round and ahead in a runoff

    A Gerp poll of 2,400 voters conducted August 21–25 shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 38% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 37% in the stimulated first-round scenario, within the poll’s ±2 percentage-point margin of error. In a simulated runoff, Flávio leads Lula 47%–42%; Lula has a 49% rejection rate versus 40% for Flávio. The poll is registered with the TSE as BR-03547/2026.

    Open source

  • Metrópoles · Aug 24, 2026, 22:37 UTC · Market-linked

    Electoral Prosecutor recommends approval of Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential candidacy

    Brazil’s Electoral Prosecutor’s Office recommended that the TSE approve Flávio Bolsonaro’s registration for the 2026 presidential election, finding that he submitted the required documents and has no identified criminal or improbity-based ineligibility. The recommendation is nonbinding, and the TSE must issue the final ruling.

    Open source

  • Agência Brasil · Aug 24, 2026, 16:53 UTC · Market-linked

    TRE-SP maintains Pablo Marçal’s ineligibility through 2032

    The president of TRE-SP rejected Pablo Marçal’s special electoral appeal, maintaining his ineligibility through 2032 and a R$420,000 fine over misuse of media in the 2024 São Paulo mayoral campaign. An appeal to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court remains possible.

    Open source

  • Nexus · Aug 24, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    BTG/Nexus poll shows Lula at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the first round; Lula leads 46%-45% in a runoff

    The 11th BTG/Nexus poll, conducted August 21–23 among 2,006 voters, puts Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 41% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 37% in the main first-round scenario. Ronaldo Caiado has 5%, while Renan Santos and Romeu Zema each have 3%. In a Lula–Flávio runoff, Lula leads 46% to 45%. The poll reports that 80% of decided first-round voters say their choice is already fixed.

    Open source

  • Folha de S.Paulo / Datafolha · Aug 21, 2026, 21:40 UTC · Market-linked

    Datafolha poll puts Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33% in the first round; Lula leads 47%-43% in a runoff

    The first Datafolha survey after official campaigning and candidate registration gives Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro 33% in the first round. Ronaldo Caiado polls at 5%, Renan Santos at 4%, and Romeu Zema at 3%. In a runoff matchup, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 47%-43%.

    Open source

  • Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · Aug 20, 2026, 16:04 UTC · Market-linked

    TSE temporarily bars Pablo Marçal from campaign activity, public funds and presidential debates

    The TSE unanimously granted an interim injunction preventing Pablo Marçal from accessing public campaign resources, including the FEFC and party fund, airing free radio and television advertising, conducting campaign activities, or participating in debates until the merits of his presidential candidacy registration are decided. The decision cites possible failure to satisfy the party-affiliation requirement and Marçal’s existing ineligibility through 2032. ([tse.jus.br](https://www.tse.jus.br/comunicacao/noticias/2026/Agosto/tse-concede-liminar-proibindo-pablo-marcal-de-usar-recursos-oficiais-para-campanha?utm_source=openai))

    Open source

  • Supremo Tribunal Federal · Jul 17, 2026, 03:00 UTC · Market-linked

    STF bars Jair Bolsonaro from political-electoral visits and manifestos through the 2026 election; suspends Flávio’s visits for 90 days

    A July 17, 2026 STF decision prohibited Jair Bolsonaro from receiving visits for political-electoral purposes and from disseminating political-electoral manifestos, including through third parties, until the end of Brazil’s 2026 general election. The ruling also suspended Flávio Bolsonaro’s visitation rights for 90 days and referred the matter to electoral authorities. ([portal.stf.jus.br](https://portal.stf.jus.br/processos/detalhe.asp?incidente=7447709&utm_source=openai))

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. Brazil Presidential Election

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:57 UTC

Full Exchange Rules 
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketSep 16, 2026, 23:29 UTCSep 16, 2026, 23:30 UTC1Open
Observed
Sep 16, 2026, 23:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

Disclaimer

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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.