Will China Invade Taiwan by End of 2026?

Reuters · Oct 01, 2026, 12:00 UTC

US officials see Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as increasingly unlikely

People familiar with U.S. thinking told Reuters that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Xi Jinping’s instruction for the PLA to be ready by 2027 if needed. Officials cite delays in Chinese military readiness amid the CCP’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election outcome; they warn the risk could become “pretty sporty” if the DPP wins a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te is re-elected.

Direct on-question repricing for a 2026 invasion market: an authoritative U.S. assessment that a near-term PLA invasion is less likely, shifting the risk window later while flagging Taiwan’s 2028 politics as the next inflection.