Binary · Active · Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Markets on Will China Invade Taiwan By End Of across Polymarket. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.

Parent Event Will China Invade Taiwan by End of 2026?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

4.0¢

Yes

24h move

+0.1 pp

Closes

Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes (derived)

Fresh snapshot

Bid

3.9¢

Ask

4.0¢

Mid

4.0¢

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

4.0¢

Midpoint

Spread
0.1¢
24h move
+0.1 pp
Closes
Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Liquidity
$588K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
4826.11
Ask size
49547.5
Vol 24h
60K shares
Vol total
42M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$588K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
0.1¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • The Straits Times · Aug 27, 2026, 04:49 UTC · Event-wide

    China deploys record 244 government vessels around Taiwan in July as maritime pressure escalates

    Taiwan Coast Guard data cited by The Straits Times showed 244 Chinese coast guard, research, and other government vessels operating around Taiwan’s main island in July, up from 55 in June and 30 in May. A further 152 vessels were detected during the first 21 days of August. Analysts said the activity may support maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare, while also increasing concerns about blockade or quarantine preparations.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:55 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No semantic rule versions yet.

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Aug 23, 2026, 11:55 UTC
Version ingestion
Aug 23, 2026, 11:55 UTC
Latest observation
Sep 17, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Sep 17, 2026, 00:24 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Sep 17, 2026, 00:14 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.