Binary · Active · Polymarket

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Markets on Will China Invade Taiwan By End Of across Polymarket. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.

Parent Event Will China Invade Taiwan by End of 2026?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

1.9¢

Yes

24h move

+0.1 pp

Closes

Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes (derived)

Fresh snapshot

Bid

1.9¢

Ask

2.0¢

Mid

1.9¢

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

1.9¢

Midpoint

Spread
0.1¢
24h move
+0.1 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Liquidity
$431K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
5397.95
Ask size
13644.79
Vol 24h
37K shares
Vol total
46M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$431K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
0.1¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • Reuters · Oct 01, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Event-wide

    US officials see Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 as increasingly unlikely

    People familiar with U.S. thinking told Reuters that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely despite Xi Jinping’s instruction for the PLA to be ready by 2027 if needed. Officials cite delays in Chinese military readiness amid the CCP’s anti-corruption campaign and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election outcome; they warn the risk could become “pretty sporty” if the DPP wins a fourth consecutive term, especially if President Lai Ching-te is re-elected.

    Open source

  • Reuters · Sep 18, 2026, 06:00 UTC · Event-wide

    Taiwan holds first joint combat drill using multiple attack drones

    President Lai Ching-te said Taiwan’s military conducted its first joint exercise incorporating multiple types of attack drones, alongside domestically developed Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missiles and U.S.-made HIMARS rockets, as part of defense modernization amid the China threat.

    Open source

  • The Straits Times · Aug 27, 2026, 04:49 UTC · Event-wide

    China deploys record 244 government vessels around Taiwan in July as maritime pressure escalates

    Taiwan Coast Guard data cited by The Straits Times showed 244 Chinese coast guard, research, and other government vessels operating around Taiwan’s main island in July, up from 55 in June and 30 in May. A further 152 vessels were detected during the first 21 days of August. Analysts said the activity may support maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare, while also increasing concerns about blockade or quarantine preparations.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Sep 19, 2026, 00:07 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

What changed

Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.

current v2 · 2 known

  1. v2decision-relevant (rules/dates/outcomes)Datesobs Sep 19, 2026, 00:07 UTC

    Review both clauses. PMI does not classify legal materiality from string inequality.

    Before

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    After

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. 

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
    Status
    Active → Active
    Closes
    Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 → Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 · UTC
    Title
    Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? → Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Sep 19, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Version ingestion
Sep 19, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest observation
Nov 02, 2026, 12:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Nov 02, 2026, 13:36 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Nov 02, 2026, 13:29 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.