Will the Iranian Regime Fall Before 2027?

Iranian regime change refers to the possible overthrow, collapse, or other end of the Islamic Republic’s current governing authority. The central question is whether the regime’s core structures cease to govern, rather than whether a particular policy, officeholder, or institution changes independently. The supplied market frames the outcome around the status of Iran’s current ruling regime through December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. A resolution in the affirmative requires broad consensus of reporting that the Islamic Republic has been overthrown, has collapsed, or otherwise no longer governs. If that condition is not established by the stated cutoff, the market resolves in the negative. For prediction-market readers, the key distinction is between significant political developments and a confirmed end to the governing system itself. Reports about pressure on, changes within, or challenges to the regime may be relevant evidence, but the stated resolution standard focuses on whether the Islamic Republic’s core structures continue to govern. The market therefore centers on a consequential institutional threshold rather than on a single announcement or isolated event. Markets on this topic may express the same broad question through different wording or resolution structures. The exact outcome criteria remain market-specific, so readers should consult each Market’s rules when interpreting an individual contract.