Binary · Active · Polymarket
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
This event concerns whether Iran’s Islamic Republic, the country’s current ruling regime, will be overthrown, collapse, or otherwise cease to govern by the end of 2026. Resolution depends on broad consensus of reporting about whether the regime’s core structures continue to govern.
Parent Event Will the Iranian Regime Fall Before 2027?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Reference
4.5¢
Yes
24h move
0.0 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Fresh
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.
Quote · Yes (derived)
Fresh snapshot
Bid
4.0¢
Ask
5.0¢
Mid
4.5¢
(bid+ask)/2
Last / ref
4.5¢
Midpoint
- Spread
- 1.0¢
- 24h move
- 0.0 pp
- Closes
- Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
- Observed
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Liquidity
- $602K
Market Activity
Activity (Polymarket units)
- Bid size
- 199969.34
- Ask size
- 137789.29
- Vol 24h
- 39K shares
- Vol total
- 29M shares
- Open interest
- Not available
- Liquidity
- $602K
- Min order
- 5 shares
- Tick
- 1.0¢
Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
Reuters · Aug 28, 2026, 05:04 UTC · Market-linked
Mojtaba Khamenei remains publicly absent as questions grow over Iran’s wartime leadership
Reuters reports that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained publicly absent for six months after reportedly suffering serious wartime injuries. The prolonged absence raises questions about Iran’s leadership capacity as the country confronts major military and economic decisions, but does not establish that the Islamic Republic has ceased governing.
Open sourceIran International · Aug 11, 2026, 14:43 UTC · Market-linked
Mojtaba Khamenei formalizes a broad wartime military reshuffle, consolidating command under IRGC veterans
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued decrees placing veteran Revolutionary Guard and intelligence officials in senior military and security posts, including Ahmad Vahidi as IRGC commander, Ali Abdollahi as armed-forces chief of staff, and Hossein Taeb as Basij chief. The appointments also advance the centralization of wartime command and emphasize domestic surveillance and repression.
Open sourceThe Guardian · Oct 05, 2026, 14:16 UTC · Event-wide
Iran’s oil minister resigns as the rial hits a record low and inflation tops 85% under the US blockade
Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned on Oct. 4, the first departure from President Masoud Pezeshkian’s cabinet, and NIOC chief Hamid Bovard was named acting minister. His exit followed allegations that an intermediary trust selling Iranian oil abroad owed the state nearly $2 billion, and parliament’s energy commission has opened an inquiry. The dollar hit a record of about 269,000 tomans, the rial is more than 10% weaker than a month ago, inflation is running at 85% and food inflation at 130% as the US naval blockade chokes oil revenue.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Last updated Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Full Exchange Rules
Exchange rules (source text)
Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
What changed
Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.
current v2 · 2 known
- v2decision-relevant (rules/dates/outcomes)Datesobs Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Review both clauses. PMI does not classify legal materiality from string inequality.
Before
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
After
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- Status
- Active → Active
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 → Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 · UTC
- Title
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? → Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Provenance
Source time and PMI observation are separate.
- Source timestamp
- Unknown from source
- Version observation
- Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
- Version ingestion
- Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
- Latest observation
- Nov 02, 2026, 12:07 UTC
- Latest source timestamp
- Unknown from source
- Response generated
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:40 UTC
- Source parser
- v1
- Observed
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:29 UTC
- Adapter
- 1
Disclaimer
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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.