Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?

The Russia–Ukraine ceasefire question is whether the two governments reach a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement by a set of specified deadlines in 2026 and 2027. The associated Markets test that outcome by May 31, June 30, August 31, October 31, and December 31, 2026, and by March 31 and June 30, 2027. In the supplied resolution language, a Market is answered Yes if a qualifying ceasefire agreement is officially reached before that Market’s deadline, even if the pause takes effect later. A broader peace deal or truce qualifies only if it includes an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting. Informal understandings, unilateral pauses, and limited local arrangements do not qualify. Exact market rules and the applicable deadline remain the authoritative basis for resolution. For a prediction-market reader, the central distinction is between the underlying topic—whether fighting is formally paused—and the different time horizons used to test it. Earlier deadlines isolate the near term; later deadlines cover a longer window. Comparing these Markets shows how the same ceasefire question is structured across time, without treating one contract’s deadline as evidence that an agreement will occur.