Ladder · Published · Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
This topic covers whether Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by specified deadlines in 2026 and 2027. The associated markets address possible agreements by May, June, August, October, or December 2026 and by March or June 2027.
Parent Event Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Next deadline price
0.1¢
August 31, 2026
24h move
-0.1 pp
Next close
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Stale
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive · Platform: Polymarket
| Selection | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
August 31, 2026 | 0.1¢ | Ask | — | -0.1 pp | Stale | |
October 31, 2026 | 0.1¢ | Ask | — | -0.4 pp | Stale | |
December 31, 2026 | 12.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | -2.0 pp | Fresh | |
March 31, 2027 | 33.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | -3.0 pp | Fresh | |
June 30, 2027 | 52.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
June 30, 2026ResolvedNo | Not available | — | — | — | — | |
May 31, 2026ResolvedNo | Not available | — | — | — | — |
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
UK Government · Aug 24, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Coalition of the Willing reports escalating Russian strikes and reiterates demand for an unconditional ceasefire
Leaders of the Coalition of the Willing condemned what they described as systematic and escalating Russian strikes and again called for a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire. They said preparations for a multinational force would continue, but deployment would occur only after a credible cessation of hostilities was in place, indicating that no qualifying bilateral ceasefire had been reached as of August 24, 2026.
Open sourceEuronews · Oct 12, 2026, 09:22 UTC · Event-wide
Trump announces an immediate Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire, but Moscow hasn’t confirmed it and strikes on Ukrainian power continue
On Sunday, Trump said on Truth Social that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate energy ceasefire, but neither side publicly confirmed a deal. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum on Oct. 12, Zelenskyy said Kyiv was not consulted, that Russia kept striking a Kharkiv power plant and gas facilities after the announcement, and that Ukraine will honor a halt to energy strikes only if Russia does the same. He also said he would work on holding elections if the US secures at least a 60-day full ceasefire. The announcement came days after a Trump–Putin deal on Russian diesel and a six-month US Treasury license easing sanctions on diesel already loaded on tankers.
Open sourceAl Jazeera · Oct 01, 2026, 18:00 UTC · Event-wide
Putin rules out long-range and energy ceasefire with Ukraine at Valdai forum
At Moscow’s Valdai Discussion Club on October 1, Vladimir Putin rejected a proposed ceasefire on long-range strikes that would swap Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries for an end to Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy and shipping, calling the idea “simply ridiculous.” The remarks follow Zelenskyy’s September 22 offer in New York to halt strikes on Russian oil facilities if Moscow stopped hitting Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Putin said Ukraine’s refinery attacks had cost Russia about 1% of GDP and that Moscow was responding in kind, while still preferring to end the conflict through talks that leave Ukraine neutral.
Open sourceAl Jazeera · Sep 25, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Event-wide
U.S. proposes technical trilateral talks with Russia and Ukraine in the UAE; Kyiv and Kremlin confirm the track
On September 25 President Zelenskyy said Washington proposed a technical-level three-way meeting with Russia and Ukraine, suggesting the UAE as a venue, and that Kyiv is awaiting a date. The Kremlin later confirmed a trilateral meeting could take place soon, while spokesman Peskov said there were no details yet. The proposal follows Witkoff-Kushner shuttle diplomacy earlier in September as fighting and drone/missile strikes continued.
Open sourceTASS · Aug 28, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide
Kremlin says Russia and Ukraine have reached no agreement on an air ceasefire
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia and Ukraine had reached no agreement on establishing an air ceasefire. He added that settlement-related discussions should remain discreet.
Open sourceThe Japan Times (Bloomberg) · Aug 27, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide
Russia reportedly prepares to escalate attacks after peace negotiations reach a dead end
A Bloomberg report cited three people close to the Kremlin who said Russia is preparing to intensify attacks after concluding that peace negotiations have reached a dead end. The report says negotiation frameworks have effectively collapsed and that Moscow is considering heavier ballistic-missile strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Structured summary not yet available.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Nov 02, 2026, 13:29 UTC | Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
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