Ladder · Published · Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
This topic covers whether Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by specified deadlines in 2026 and 2027. The associated markets address possible agreements by May, June, August, October, or December 2026 and by March or June 2027.
Parent Event Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Next deadline price
0.1¢
August 31, 2026
24h move
-0.1 pp
Next close
Sep 01, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Stale
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive · Platform: Polymarket
| Selection | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
August 31, 2026 | 0.1¢ | Ask | — | -0.1 pp | Stale | |
October 31, 2026 | 8.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | +0.5 pp | Fresh | |
December 31, 2026 | 22.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | -1.0 pp | Fresh | |
March 31, 2027 | 39.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
June 30, 2027 | 56.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
June 30, 2026ResolvedNo | Not available | — | — | — | — | |
May 31, 2026ResolvedNo | Not available | — | — | — | — |
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
UK Government · Aug 24, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Coalition of the Willing reports escalating Russian strikes and reiterates demand for an unconditional ceasefire
Leaders of the Coalition of the Willing condemned what they described as systematic and escalating Russian strikes and again called for a full, immediate, and unconditional ceasefire. They said preparations for a multinational force would continue, but deployment would occur only after a credible cessation of hostilities was in place, indicating that no qualifying bilateral ceasefire had been reached as of August 24, 2026.
Open sourceTASS · Aug 28, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide
Kremlin says Russia and Ukraine have reached no agreement on an air ceasefire
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia and Ukraine had reached no agreement on establishing an air ceasefire. He added that settlement-related discussions should remain discreet.
Open sourceThe Japan Times (Bloomberg) · Aug 27, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide
Russia reportedly prepares to escalate attacks after peace negotiations reach a dead end
A Bloomberg report cited three people close to the Kremlin who said Russia is preparing to intensify attacks after concluding that peace negotiations have reached a dead end. The report says negotiation frameworks have effectively collapsed and that Moscow is considering heavier ballistic-missile strikes on Kyiv and Ukrainian infrastructure.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Structured summary not yet available.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Sep 17, 2026, 00:14 UTC | Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.