Race · Published · Polymarket

Fed Decision in September?

Markets on Fed Decision Interest Rates across listed aggregate markets. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.

Parent Event US Fed Decision September 2026. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

99.9¢

25 bps increase

24h move

+12.4 pp

Closes

Sep 16, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Stale

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

Fed Decision in September?

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for Fed Decision in September? by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
25 bps increase
Yes
99.9¢
Bid—+12.4 ppStale
#2
50+ bps increase
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—-0.8 ppStale
#3
50+ bps decrease
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—0.0 ppStale
#4
No change
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—-9.4 ppStale
#5
25 bps decrease
Yes
0.1¢
Ask—-0.1 ppStale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • Yahoo Finance / Reuters · Aug 27, 2026, 23:26 UTC · Market-linked

    Cleveland Fed’s Hammack says inflation may remain near 3% through year-end and supports acting on rates

    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation could finish 2026 near 3% and reach only the mid-2% range next year at best. She reiterated that a rate hike may be needed to contain persistent inflation, adding hawkish guidance from another Fed official ahead of the September FOMC meeting.

    Open source

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Market-linked

    July core PCE inflation remained elevated at 3.3% year over year

    The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE also increased 0.2% monthly and remained elevated at 3.3% annually, while real consumer spending was essentially flat.

    Open source

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Market-linked

    Q2 GDP held at 1.5%, but underlying demand and inflation were revised higher

    BEA’s second estimate kept Q2 real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, but revised real final sales to private domestic purchasers up to 4.2%. The PCE price index was revised to 5.3% and core PCE to 3.6%, while real GDI rose 2.2%.

    Open source

  • Federal Reserve Board · Aug 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    July FOMC minutes reveal meaningful support for a September rate hike

    The July 28–29 FOMC minutes show a 9–3 decision to hold the federal-funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, with three members favoring a 25-basis-point hike. Many participants said additional increases could be appropriate if inflation remains elevated, while the September 15–16 meeting was identified as the next policy decision.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. Fed Decision in September?

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:53 UTC

Full Exchange Rules 
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.

If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketSep 16, 2026, 21:29 UTCSep 16, 2026, 21:30 UTC1Open
Observed
Sep 16, 2026, 21:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.