Race · Published · Polymarket
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Markets on How Many Fed Rate Cuts In across listed aggregate markets. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.
Parent Event US Fed Rate Cuts in 2026. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Reference
97.1¢
0 (0 bps)
24h move
+0.3 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Fresh
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket
| Rank | Candidate | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 0 (0 bps) | Yes 97.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.2¢ | +0.3 pp | Fresh | |
| #2 | 1 (25 bps) | Yes 1.3¢ | Midpoint | 0.5¢ | +0.1 pp | Fresh | |
| #3 | 2 (50 bps) | Yes 0.5¢ | Midpoint | 0.2¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #4 | 7 (175 bps) | Yes 0.2¢ | Ask | — | — | Fresh | |
| #5 | 6 (150 bps) | Yes 0.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | — | Stale | |
| #6 | 3 (75 bps) | Yes 0.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #7 | 4 (100 bps) | Yes 0.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #8 | 12+ (300+ bps) | Yes 0.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | — | Stale |
Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
Federal Reserve Board · Aug 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
July FOMC minutes show three members favored a rate hike and many saw tightening risk if inflation persists
Minutes from the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting reported a 9–3 decision to hold rates, with three participants preferring a 25-basis-point increase. Many participants said further tightening could be appropriate if inflation remains elevated, while staff identified upside inflation risks.
Open sourceFederal Reserve · Sep 16, 2026, 18:00 UTC · Event-wide
September SEP: median funds rate held at 4.1% through 2027; no cut until 2028 (3.9%)
The FOMC’s Sept. 16 Summary of Economic Projections puts the median appropriate federal funds rate at 4.1% for both end-2026 and end-2027, then 3.9% in 2028 and 3.6% in 2029 (longer-run 3.2%). That is a sharp hawkish revision from June’s medians of 3.8% (2026) and 3.6% (2027). After the September hike to 3.75%–4%, the median path implies no easing in 2026 or 2027.
Open sourceU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Event-wide
July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%
The July PCE price index increased 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE also rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, while real personal consumption expenditures were essentially flat.
Open sourceU.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Event-wide
Q2 GDP held at 1.5%, but domestic demand and inflation were revised higher
BEA’s second estimate kept Q2 real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers were revised up to 4.2%. The PCE price index was revised up to 5.3% annualized and core PCE to 3.6%, indicating firm demand alongside elevated inflation pressure.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Exclusive · Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:56 UTC
Full Exchange Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC | Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.