Race · Published · Polymarket

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Markets on How Many Fed Rate Cuts In across listed aggregate markets. Live odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.

Parent Event US Fed Rate Cuts in 2026. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

94.8¢

0 (0 bps)

24h move

+1.3 pp

Closes

Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
0 (0 bps)
Yes
94.8¢
Midpoint0.1¢+1.3 ppFresh
#2
1 (25 bps)
Yes
2.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢-3.6 ppFresh
#3
2 (50 bps)
Yes
0.7¢
Midpoint0.4¢-0.1 ppFresh
#4
4 (100 bps)
Yes
0.2¢
Midpoint0.2¢+0.1 ppFresh
#5
5 (125 bps)
Yes
0.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale
#6
3 (75 bps)
Yes
0.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢0.0 ppFresh
#7
11 (275 bps)
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale
#8
7 (175 bps)
Yes
0.1¢
Ask——Stale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • Federal Reserve Board · Aug 19, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    July FOMC minutes show three members favored a rate hike and many saw tightening risk if inflation persists

    Minutes from the July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting reported a 9–3 decision to hold rates, with three participants preferring a 25-basis-point increase. Many participants said further tightening could be appropriate if inflation remains elevated, while staff identified upside inflation risks.

    Open source

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Event-wide

    July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, with core PCE at 3.3%

    The July PCE price index increased 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE also rose 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, while real personal consumption expenditures were essentially flat.

    Open source

  • U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 UTC · Event-wide

    Q2 GDP held at 1.5%, but domestic demand and inflation were revised higher

    BEA’s second estimate kept Q2 real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, while real final sales to private domestic purchasers were revised up to 4.2%. The PCE price index was revised up to 5.3% annualized and core PCE to 3.6%, indicating firm demand alongside elevated inflation pressure.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 23, 2026, 11:56 UTC

Full Exchange Rules 
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketSep 17, 2026, 00:14 UTCSep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC1Open
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.