Ladder · Published · Polymarket
Iran leadership change by…?
Markets on Iran leadership change by…? across Polymarket. Odds, volume, chart, and key terms below.
Parent Event Iran leadership change by…?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Next deadline price
0.1¢
September 30, 2026
24h move
-0.1 pp
Next close
Dec 01, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Stale
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
Iran leadership change by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive · Platform: Polymarket
| Selection | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
September 30, 2026 | 0.1¢ | Ask | — | -0.1 pp | Stale | |
October 31, 2026 | 0.1¢ | Ask | — | -0.5 pp | Stale | |
November 30, 2026 | 7.0¢ | Midpoint | 2.0¢ | -0.5 pp | Fresh | |
December 31, 2026 | 14.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | +1.0 pp | Fresh | |
June 30, 2027 | 26.5¢ | Midpoint | 1.0¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh |
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
IranWire · Sep 28, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Event-wide
IranWire: regime sources say Mojtaba will be replaced after the war; Assembly support for a new Supreme Leader
Two IranWire sources with ties across regime factions and the IRGC said political leaders and numerous IRGC commanders view Mojtaba Khamenei’s continued leadership—allegedly assisted by artificial intelligence—as unsustainable and weakening the system. They said high-ranking officials plan to select a new Supreme Leader once fighting with the U.S. and Israel ends, citing likely physical inability to perform all duties, and that numerous Assembly of Experts members support that change.
Open sourceNew York Post · Sep 24, 2026, 22:23 UTC · Event-wide
Pezeshkian says Mojtaba Khamenei is “completely” healthy and still directing Iran’s government
In a Fox News interview aired September 24, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said he met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei in person about a month earlier for roughly seven hours and that Khamenei is “completely” healthy and able to govern. Pezeshkian said his administration continues to receive directions from Khamenei. Mojtaba has not made a public appearance or released authenticated video since succeeding Ali Khamenei after the February 28 strikes.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. Iran leadership change by…?
Non Exclusive · Non Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Structured summary not yet available.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC | Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.
Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.