Binary · Active · Polymarket

Trump out as President before 2027?

This topic concerns whether Donald Trump remains President of the United States through the end of 2026. The outcome turns on whether he resigns, is removed, or otherwise ceases to be president before the stated deadline.

Parent Event Trump Out as President Before 2027?. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

3.5¢

Yes

24h move

+0.6 pp

Closes

Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Prices are delayed snapshots. They are not executable quotes.

Quote · Yes (derived)

Fresh snapshot

Bid

3.5¢

Ask

3.6¢

Mid

3.5¢

(bid+ask)/2

Last / ref

3.5¢

Midpoint

Spread
0.1¢
24h move
+0.6 pp
Closes
Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 UTC
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Liquidity
$245K
Market Activity

Activity (Polymarket units)

Bid size
7013.2
Ask size
994.05
Vol 24h
57K shares
Vol total
14M shares
Open interest
Not available
Liquidity
$245K
Min order
5 shares
Tick
0.1¢

Platform units are not comparable across exchanges.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • IBTimes UK · Oct 06, 2026, 22:54 UTC · Event-wide

    Newsom calls for the 25th Amendment over Trump’s Iran remarks, but no removal process is underway

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom urged invoking the 25th Amendment on Oct. 6 after President Trump told a Nebraska rally that Iran could “take out” Los Angeles and San Diego; the White House said Trump was describing the threat from a nuclear-armed Iran. A governor cannot start that process: Section 4 needs Vice President Vance and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the president unable to serve. The impeachment route is also stalled after the House voted 232–147 on Sept. 15 to table Rep. Al Green’s impeachment resolution (H. Res. 1486), with 18 Democrats joining Republicans and 46 voting present.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

Full Exchange Rules

Exchange rules (source text)

Preserved from the exchange · distinct from PMI interpretation

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

What changed

Semantic versions only. Field diffs ≠ legal materiality.

current v2 · 2 known

  1. v2decision-relevant (rules/dates/outcomes)Datesobs Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC

    Review both clauses. PMI does not classify legal materiality from string inequality.

    Before

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    After

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.

A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
    Status
    Active → Active
    Closes
    Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 → Jan 01, 2027, 00:00 · UTC
    Title
    Trump out as President before 2027? → Trump out as President before 2027?

Provenance

Source time and PMI observation are separate.

Source timestamp
Unknown from source
Version observation
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Version ingestion
Aug 28, 2026, 00:07 UTC
Latest observation
Nov 02, 2026, 12:07 UTC
Latest source timestamp
Unknown from source
Response generated
Nov 02, 2026, 13:40 UTC
Source parser
v1
Observed
Nov 02, 2026, 13:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
Nov 02, 2026, 13:29 UTC
Adapter
1

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.