Race · Published · Polymarket

Presidential Election Winner 2028

This Event covers the 2028 US presidential election and the question of who will win it. Its supplied aggregate Market, Presidential Election Winner 2028, contains 52 member selections, including Greg Abbott, Andy Beshear, Hakeem Jeffries, Alex Padilla, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump Jr., Pete Buttigieg, and Eric Trump.

Parent Event US Presidential Election 2028. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

22.1¢

JD Vance

24h move

-1.0 pp

Closes

Nov 07, 2028, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for Presidential Election Winner 2028 by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
JD Vance
Yes
22.1¢
Midpoint0.1¢-1.0 ppFresh
#2
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Yes
13.2¢
Midpoint0.1¢-0.1 ppFresh
#3
Jon Ossoff
Yes
11.6¢
Midpoint0.1¢0.0 ppFresh
#4
Marco Rubio
Yes
10.6¢
Midpoint0.1¢-0.5 ppFresh
#5
Gavin Newsom
Yes
8.2¢
Midpoint0.1¢+0.1 ppFresh
#6
Kamala Harris
Yes
4.5¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Fresh
#7
Josh Shapiro
Yes
3.5¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale
#8
Pete Buttigieg
Yes
2.5¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • The Texas Tribune · Aug 26, 2026, 16:54 UTC · Market-linked

    Greg Abbott’s campaign says he is not interested in running for president in 2028

    Greg Abbott’s gubernatorial campaign press secretary, Eduardo Leal, unequivocally said Abbott is not interested in running for president in 2028. The statement came in response to speculation from Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick about Abbott’s ambitions.

    Open source

  • Fox News · Aug 12, 2026, 12:20 UTC · Market-linked

    Trump says the law is ‘very strong’ against a third-term presidential run in 2028

    President Donald Trump said he would like to run for a third term but acknowledged that “the law is very strong” against doing so. The comments contrast with his earlier jokes and suggestions that he might pursue a third term through an alternative legal strategy.

    Open source

  • The Daily Beast · Aug 06, 2026, 13:48 UTC · Market-linked

    Trump privately tells donors Republicans need to elect JD Vance in 2028

    The Daily Beast reports that Donald Trump privately told donors, “At the end of the day, we need to elect JD,” apparently referring to Vice President JD Vance. The report contrasts the alleged remark with Trump’s public suggestions that either Vance or Marco Rubio could lead the 2028 Republican ticket, and notes that sources caution Trump could still change his mind.

    Open source

  • RealClearPolitics · Aug 03, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Pete Buttigieg says he is “more inclined than not” to run for president in 2028

    Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said in an interview that he is more inclined than not to seek the presidency in 2028, while noting that he is still considering the impact on his family.

    Open source

  • Axios · Aug 02, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Gavin Newsom builds fundraising and party relationships ahead of 2028

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom has raised more than $1.7 million for 14 Democratic state parties and legislative committees during the current cycle, including more than $300,000 for South Carolina Democrats and over $220,000 for New Hampshire Democrats. Axios reports that state-party leaders view his fundraising and political network as stronger than those of other prominent potential 2028 Democratic candidates.

    Open source

  • Associated Press · Jul 24, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Trump again signals a possible 2028 run, wearing a “Trump 2028” cap at White House correspondents’ dinner

    President Donald Trump joked about seeking a third term and appeared publicly in a “Trump 2028” cap, signaling continued interest in remaining politically relevant to the 2028 presidential contest.

    Open source

  • CNN · Jun 28, 2026, 12:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Jon Ossoff says he has no interest in running for president in 2028

    During a CNN interview, Sen. Jon Ossoff said he has no interest in seeking the presidency in 2028 and is focused on his Georgia Senate reelection campaign.

    Open source

  • CBS News · Jun 14, 2026, 14:12 UTC · Market-linked

    JD Vance says he will decide on a 2028 presidential run after the 2026 midterms

    Vice President JD Vance said he and Usha Vance expect to discuss whether he will seek the 2028 Republican presidential nomination after the 2026 midterm elections. Vance also said President Donald Trump would be supportive of whatever decision he makes.

    Open source

  • Democratic National Committee · Aug 15, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Event-wide

    Democratic Party sets 2028 early-state primary calendar with South Carolina first

    The Democratic National Committee announced its approved 2028 early-window calendar: South Carolina on January 22, followed by Nevada on February 1, New Hampshire on February 8, New Mexico on February 15, Michigan on February 22, and Virginia on February 29.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. Presidential Election Winner 2028

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Resolution condition
Resolves to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election, once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate; otherwise resolves to “No.”
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; if the race is not called by the inauguration date, the outcome is based on who is inaugurated.
Closing time
Missing
Unknown
Time zone
Missing
Not stated (display times in UTC)
Cancellation / early-close logic
If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate by January 20, 2029, resolve based on who is inaugurated.
Full Exchange Rules 
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketSep 16, 2026, 23:29 UTCSep 16, 2026, 23:30 UTC1Open
Observed
Sep 16, 2026, 23:30 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

Disclaimer

PMI provides research information sourced from third-party prediction market platforms, including Polymarket. PMI does not operate a prediction market. PMI does not execute trades, place orders, accept deposits, or hold funds. Trade links open third-party platforms. PMI is not affiliated with or endorsed by those platforms. Market information can change. Verify current prices, rules, fees, and availability on the source platform. This material is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice.

Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.