Race · Published · Polymarket
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
This Event covers who becomes Israel’s prime minister after the next Knesset election and the coalition bargaining that follows. The reviewed race Market tracks a wide field of named contenders, including current leaders of the odds board such as Gadi Eizenkot alongside Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and other major party figures.
Parent Event Israel Prime Minister After the Next Election. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.
Reference
46.1¢
Gadi Eizenkot
24h move
+6.5 pp
Closed
Oct 28, 2026, 00:00 UTC
Freshness
Fresh
Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.
01 / Market
Market
Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket
| Rank | Candidate | Ref | Basis | Spread | 24h move | Freshness | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Gadi Eizenkot | Yes 46.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.3¢ | +6.5 pp | Fresh | |
| #2 | Benjamin Netanyahu | Yes 32.5¢ | Midpoint | 0.7¢ | +0.9 pp | Fresh | |
| #3 | Avigdor Lieberman | Yes 4.5¢ | Midpoint | 0.6¢ | +1.6 pp | Fresh | |
| #4 | Naftali Bennett | Yes 4.1¢ | Midpoint | 0.4¢ | -0.1 pp | Fresh | |
| #5 | Yossi Cohen | Yes 0.9¢ | Midpoint | 0.2¢ | 0.0 pp | Fresh | |
| #6 | Israel Katz | Yes 0.6¢ | Midpoint | 0.3¢ | — | Stale | |
| #7 | Amir Ohana | Yes 0.5¢ | Midpoint | 0.2¢ | — | Stale | |
| #8 | Yair Lapid | Yes 0.3¢ | Midpoint | 0.1¢ | — | Stale |
Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.
02 / History
History
03 / Research
Research
The Jerusalem Post · Aug 28, 2026, 14:53 UTC · Market-linked
Bezalel Smotrich begins talks with Moshe Feiglin on a joint electoral ticket
Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin have begun talks to run together in Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election. The development comes as Itamar Ben-Gvir refuses to run on the same ticket as Smotrich, potentially reshaping the right-wing field.
Open sourceYnet · Aug 27, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Likud signals acceptance of Shas demand to pass a Haredi enlistment-exemption law before forming the next government
Likud spokesman Guy Levy said the party hopes to pass a Haredi military-service exemption law immediately after the election and before the next government is formed, responding to a demand from Shas lawmaker Yoav Ben Tzur. Ben Tzur said Shas intends to remain in Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious bloc and is unlikely to join a government led by Gadi Eisenkot.
Open sourceChannel 13 News · Aug 26, 2026, 16:53 UTC · Market-linked
Channel 13 poll shows Eisenkot leading with 24 seats as Likud falls to 19; Netanyahu bloc drops to 48
A Channel 13 poll conducted after Ofer Winter’s party launch projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 24 Knesset seats, ahead of Likud at 19 and Naftali Bennett’s party at 13. The Netanyahu-led bloc is projected at 48 seats, compared with 57 for the opposition bloc and 15 for Arab parties. Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu 46% to 35% on suitability for prime minister.
Open sourceIsrael Hayom · Aug 25, 2026, 17:31 UTC · Market-linked
Moshe Gafni signals United Torah Judaism may recommend Gadi Eisenkot rather than Benjamin Netanyahu
Degel HaTorah leader Moshe Gafni declined to say whether he would recommend Benjamin Netanyahu and suggested that a recommendation of Gadi Eisenkot was possible. He said Haredi parties had concluded they could not advance key family and education issues with Netanyahu’s bloc and might find it easier to work with another right-leaning bloc.
Open sourceThe Jerusalem Post · Aug 25, 2026, 00:19 UTC · Market-linked
New poll puts Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu on prime-minister suitability while Yashar becomes the largest projected party
A Channel 12 mandate poll reported by Maariv projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party as the largest faction with 24 Knesset seats, ahead of Likud on 22. Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu 44% to 34% on suitability to serve as prime minister, while the projected blocs remain short of a governing majority: 50 coalition seats, 59 opposition seats, and 11 Arab-party seats.
Open sourceThe Jerusalem Post · Aug 12, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked
Smotrich rejects renewed electoral alliance with Ben-Gvir ahead of the 2026 election
Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich said his party intends to run separately from Itamar Ben-Gvir’s party in the October 27, 2026 election. Smotrich also reaffirmed that he remains aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu and expects the Haredi parties to remain coalition partners.
Open sourceIsrael National News · Oct 12, 2026, 18:52 UTC · Event-wide
Two weeks out, Israeli polls split: Channel 12 has Eisenkot’s Yashar! ahead 23–20 with Netanyahu’s bloc at 49, while Channel 14 gives Likud 29 and the right 61
Two polls published Oct. 12 for the Oct. 27 Knesset election diverge on who leads. Channel 12 puts Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar! first with 23 seats, Likud at 20 and Bennett’s Beyachad at 13; the parties of Netanyahu’s current coalition total 49 seats, 12 short of a majority. Channel 14 has Likud first with 29 seats (down two), Yashar! at 20 (down from 23), and the right-wing bloc at 61 (down from 63), with the center-left at 46 and Arab parties at 13. In both polls the Hendel–Zelekha Reservists party clears the threshold with four seats and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael misses.
Open sourceThe Times of Israel · Oct 02, 2026, 14:47 UTC · Event-wide
Israel’s Supreme Court reinstates Joint List and Ra’am for the Oct. 27 election, overturning the election-committee ban
Israel’s Supreme Court on October 2 unanimously overturned the Central Elections Committee’s decision to bar the Arab-majority Joint List and Ra’am from the October 27 Knesset election, finding the evidence did not meet the narrow legal threshold for disqualifying a list. The court also ruled 7–2 to let Joint List MK Ofer Cassif run. Balad chairman Sami Abou Shahadeh withdrew his candidacy before the ruling after the bench signaled a majority to bar him. The bans had been sought by right-wing parties including Likud and Otzma Yehudit.
Open sourceThe Jerusalem Post · Sep 28, 2026, 03:29 UTC · Event-wide
Kan/Kantar poll: Eisenkot’s Yashar 23, Likud 21; Netanyahu and change blocs tied at 52 seats each
A Kan News poll by Kantar (Dudi Hassid), published Sunday evening about a month before Israel’s October 27 election, projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 23 Knesset seats and Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 21. The Netanyahu and “change” blocs are tied at 52 seats each. Naftali Bennett’s Together is at 11; the Democrats and Yisrael Beiteinu at 9 each; Otzma Yehudit, Shas, UTJ and the Joint List at 7; Religious Zionism–Zehut at 6; Ra’am at 5; and Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael at 4. Direct PM preference is essentially tied: Netanyahu 39% vs Eisenkot 38%. Sample: 552 respondents, MoE ±4.2%.
Open sourceIsrael National News · Aug 19, 2026, 20:43 UTC · Event-wide
Hadash, Ta’al and Balad agree to revive a Joint List without Ra’am
Hadash, Ta’al and Balad agreed to contest the October 2026 Knesset election on a joint slate, while Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am will run separately. The split could affect Arab turnout, projected seat totals, and the post-election coalition arithmetic.
Open source
04 / Resolution
Resolution
Canonical question. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Exclusive · Exhaustive
Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.
Key Rules
Verified against exchange rules
Last updated Aug 24, 2026, 11:17 UTC
Full Exchange Rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
05 / Changes
Changes and Sources
No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.
| Platform | Source time | Observed | Adapter | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Nov 03, 2026, 15:14 UTC | Nov 03, 2026, 15:15 UTC | 1 | Open |
- Observed
- Nov 03, 2026, 15:15 UTC
- Collection
- Scheduled Collection
- Source time
- —
- Adapter
- Not available
Disclaimer
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