Race · Published · Polymarket

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

This Event covers who becomes Israel’s prime minister after the next Knesset election and the coalition bargaining that follows. The reviewed race Market tracks a wide field of named contenders, including current leaders of the odds board such as Gadi Eizenkot alongside Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz, and other major party figures.

Parent Event Israel Prime Minister After the Next Election. Prices are research references. They are not executable quotes.

Exchange

Reference

50.5¢

Gadi Eizenkot

24h move

-2.2 pp

Closes

Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC

Freshness

Fresh

Quotes refresh on a bounded schedule. Contract terms update only when non-price rules change. Compare source time vs PMI observed time before acting.

01 / Market

Market

Platform markets are not one pooled order book. Prices are not executable.

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Exclusive · Exhaustive · Source: Polymarket Complete · Platform: Polymarket

Ranked candidates for Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? by Polymarket reference price
RankCandidateRefBasisSpread24h moveFreshnessLink
#1
Gadi Eizenkot
Yes
50.5¢
Midpoint0.5¢-2.2 ppFresh
#2
Benjamin Netanyahu
Yes
30.5¢
Midpoint1.0¢+1.0 ppFresh
#3
Naftali Bennett
Yes
8.5¢
Midpoint1.0¢-1.0 ppFresh
#4
Avigdor Lieberman
Yes
5.7¢
Midpoint0.2¢+0.1 ppFresh
#5
Itamar Ben Gvir
Yes
0.6¢
Midpoint0.1¢+0.1 ppFresh
#6
Yoaz Hendel
Yes
0.3¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale
#7
Yossi Cohen
Yes
0.3¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale
#8
Yair Golan
Yes
0.3¢
Midpoint0.1¢—Stale

Ranked by the selected platform's reference price — highest first; candidates without a price on this platform sort last. Other platform quotes stay visible under each candidate. Prices are not executable.

02 / History

History

03 / Research

Research

  • The Jerusalem Post · Aug 28, 2026, 14:53 UTC · Market-linked

    Bezalel Smotrich begins talks with Moshe Feiglin on a joint electoral ticket

    Religious Zionist Party leader Bezalel Smotrich and former Likud lawmaker Moshe Feiglin have begun talks to run together in Israel’s October 2026 Knesset election. The development comes as Itamar Ben-Gvir refuses to run on the same ticket as Smotrich, potentially reshaping the right-wing field.

    Open source

  • Ynet · Aug 27, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Likud signals acceptance of Shas demand to pass a Haredi enlistment-exemption law before forming the next government

    Likud spokesman Guy Levy said the party hopes to pass a Haredi military-service exemption law immediately after the election and before the next government is formed, responding to a demand from Shas lawmaker Yoav Ben Tzur. Ben Tzur said Shas intends to remain in Benjamin Netanyahu’s religious bloc and is unlikely to join a government led by Gadi Eisenkot.

    Open source

  • Channel 13 News · Aug 26, 2026, 16:53 UTC · Market-linked

    Channel 13 poll shows Eisenkot leading with 24 seats as Likud falls to 19; Netanyahu bloc drops to 48

    A Channel 13 poll conducted after Ofer Winter’s party launch projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party at 24 Knesset seats, ahead of Likud at 19 and Naftali Bennett’s party at 13. The Netanyahu-led bloc is projected at 48 seats, compared with 57 for the opposition bloc and 15 for Arab parties. Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu 46% to 35% on suitability for prime minister.

    Open source

  • Israel Hayom · Aug 25, 2026, 17:31 UTC · Market-linked

    Moshe Gafni signals United Torah Judaism may recommend Gadi Eisenkot rather than Benjamin Netanyahu

    Degel HaTorah leader Moshe Gafni declined to say whether he would recommend Benjamin Netanyahu and suggested that a recommendation of Gadi Eisenkot was possible. He said Haredi parties had concluded they could not advance key family and education issues with Netanyahu’s bloc and might find it easier to work with another right-leaning bloc.

    Open source

  • The Jerusalem Post · Aug 25, 2026, 00:19 UTC · Market-linked

    New poll puts Gadi Eisenkot ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu on prime-minister suitability while Yashar becomes the largest projected party

    A Channel 12 mandate poll reported by Maariv projects Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party as the largest faction with 24 Knesset seats, ahead of Likud on 22. Eisenkot leads Benjamin Netanyahu 44% to 34% on suitability to serve as prime minister, while the projected blocs remain short of a governing majority: 50 coalition seats, 59 opposition seats, and 11 Arab-party seats.

    Open source

  • The Jerusalem Post · Aug 12, 2026, 00:00 UTC · Market-linked

    Smotrich rejects renewed electoral alliance with Ben-Gvir ahead of the 2026 election

    Religious Zionism leader Bezalel Smotrich said his party intends to run separately from Itamar Ben-Gvir’s party in the October 27, 2026 election. Smotrich also reaffirmed that he remains aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu and expects the Haredi parties to remain coalition partners.

    Open source

  • Israel National News · Aug 19, 2026, 20:43 UTC · Event-wide

    Hadash, Ta’al and Balad agree to revive a Joint List without Ra’am

    Hadash, Ta’al and Balad agreed to contest the October 2026 Knesset election on a joint slate, while Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am will run separately. The split could affect Arab turnout, projected seat totals, and the post-election coalition arithmetic.

    Open source

04 / Resolution

Resolution

Canonical question. Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Exclusive · Exhaustive

Membership review confirms Selections only. It does not confirm Resolution rules.

Key Rules

Verified against exchange rules

Last updated Aug 24, 2026, 11:17 UTC

Full Exchange Rules 
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. 

This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

05 / Changes

Changes and Sources

No stale analysis flags on this aggregate Market.

PlatformSource timeObservedAdapterSource
PolymarketSep 17, 2026, 00:14 UTCSep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC1Open
Observed
Sep 17, 2026, 00:15 UTC
Collection
Scheduled Collection
Source time
—
Adapter
Not available

Disclaimer

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Structured terms are verified extracts, not the exchange's own rules. Prices are snapshots with an explicit basis and are not executable. 24h movement is a snapshot comparison, not a trading signal. Liquidity is reported per platform and is never pooled across venues.